We may be at a tipping point

Dissatisfaction with the American political system is hardly a new phenomenon. However, it has been steadily worsening for decades and is stuck at historic lows.

If you are reading this, you probably don’t need convincing that our political system is broken and that we need a new approach. If you want to read a few articles on the topic just to stoke your outrage, here are a couple good ones…there are plenty more, but no need to belabor the obvious:

The Washington Post: American democracy is cracking: These forces help explain why. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/08/18/american-democracy-political-system-failures)

Pew Research Center: Americans’ Dismal Views of the Nation’s Politics (https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/09/19/americans-dismal-views-of-the-nations-politics/)

Fortunately, the purpose of this site is not just to complain about the dismal state of American politics but to lay out a framework for actually doing something about it. (see our original post Take the Power Back for the big picture view). And to our eyes there is something positive about the overwhelming dissatisfaction Americans are voicing about the political system.

The title of this post is taken from the 1976 movie, Network. For the youngsters in the crowd, 1976 was a moment not dissimilar to the present in terms of the national political mood. Nixon had resigned in disgrace a few years earlier, inflation was rampant, the political divisions associated with the Vietnam War were still fresh, and crime was on the rise, especially in big cities. While trust in government had not reached the lows we are seeing now, it is worth noting (see chart above) that they had absolutely plummeted from close to 80% in the 1960s, just a decade earlier. In the movie, Howard Beale, a network anchor facing an involuntary ‘retirement’, gives voice to the frustration of the era in one of the more memorable movie speeches of all time (worth a watch if you have not seen it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwMVMbmQBug).

The speech goes viral and becomes a rallying cry for frustrated citizens everywhere. There are signs we may be ready for just such a viral moment. Here are a few: (1) according to the Washington Post article I cited above, the number one descriptor of the American political system today is ‘divisive’; (2) a 2023 Gallup poll shows political support for a third party at a record high 63%¹ (note, although I personally admire the No Labels movement and share many of its objectives, I do not believe a third party candidate can succeed and will adress that in another post); and (3), perhaps most intriguingly for our approach, an increasing number of voters have been registering as Republican without a corresponding increase in voters identifying as Republican.^2,3 As the linked article states, “at least some of the newly registered Republicans are actually Democrats who crossed over to vote against Trump-backed candidates in GOP primaries.”

The New Hampshire presidential primary creates an intriguing case study. Trump won the Republican primary with 176,392 votes, 54.3% of the total votes cast. Nikki Haley won 140,288 votes, or 43.2%. In New Hampshire, “unaffiliated” voters comprise 39.9% of the electorate, with Democratic and Republican registrations roughly equal at ~30% each. Unlike most states, unaffiliated voters in New Hampshire can vote in the presidential primary for either party and many voted in the Republican primary; 58% of those unaffiliated voters went for Haley. There was also a disorganized and belated push for registered Democrats to re-register as unaffiliated and it has been reported that 3,500 registered Democrats, or just over 1%, did just that.

Trump supporters were naturally incensed at these numbers and view them as a conspiracy to try to keep Trump off the ballot and force the republicans to run a weaker candidate. They are half right. The numbers DO seem to show a desire to keep Trump off the ballot. But Haley is far from the weaker candidate; in fact, in hypothetical head-to-head polling vs. Biden, Haley consistently demonstrated a larger margin over Biden than any of the other potential republican candidates. So these crossover voters were arguably elevating the strongest possible Republican candidate either because they view a Trump re-election as unthinkable or because they believe the Democrats have opted for complacency over competitiveness. Or both.

The other lesson from New Hampshire is just how achievable it would be to change the outcomes in primary elections with some awareness and organization. New Hampshire has almost exactly 1 million registered voters divided as follows: roughly 300,000 Democrats, 300,000 Republicans and 400,000 unaffiliated. Trump’s 176,392 votes represented less than 18% of the total registered electorate and his victory margin of 36,104 represented less than 4%. Maybe the most shocking statistic is that less than 1/3 of registered voters voted in the presidential primary in a state known to take pride in leading the nation in primary voting.

Can the following facts taken together produce a change in how American approach elections? I hope so…(1) We are experiencing generational, even historical levels of frustration with our political system. (2) The primaries ARE the election for the vast majority of states (in presidential elections) and congressional districts. (3) The numbers required to change the outcomes are very, very achievable on a state by state and district by district basis.

1. https://news.gallup.com/poll/512135/support-third-political-party.aspx#:~:text=Americans’%20Views%20of%20Need%20for%20a%20Third%20Major%20Political%20Party&text=Generally%2C%20more%20Americans%20have%20said,such%20a%20party%20is%20needed. ↩︎
2. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/more-than-1-million-voters-switch-to-gop-raising-alarm-for-democrats ↩︎
3. https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx ↩︎